Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 42 – Carolina Panthers 10

(11:31) 6-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to CAR 26, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-27-D.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.42 EP
64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model