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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 80

New Orleans Saints 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 6-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to CAR 42, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-27-D.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.33 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 37, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP