Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 47

Carolina Panthers 3 – New Orleans Saints 35

What Actually Happened

(8:27) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback. PENALTY on CAR-18-D.White, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NO 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.67 EP
69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.58 EP

KICK -1.19 EP

32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
68% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model