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Miami Dolphins

5-11 HC Brian Flores
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New England Patriots

12-4 HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2019-12-29 · 13:00 ET Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 17.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

MIA
33.8%
NE
66.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NE defense: -0.095 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • NE offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Tom Brady (NE): -0.024 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIA 22 15–29
–
NE 24 17–31
Projected margin: NE by 2 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 17

MIA

Clive Walford TE Out Not Injury Related
Jamal Perry CB Out Shoulder
Vince Biegel LB Questionable Elbow
Taco Charlton DE Questionable Ankle
Allen Hurns WR Questionable Ankle
Zach Sieler DT Questionable Ankle
Christian Wilkins DE Questionable Ankle

NE

Sony Michel RB Questionable Illness
Shilique Calhoun LB Questionable Illness
Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Knee
Terrence Brooks S Questionable Groin
Marcus Cannon T Questionable Ankle
Jamie Collins LB Questionable Shoulder
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Knee
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Groin
Jason McCourty CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 27
–
NE 24

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:42 FG MIA (1:42) 7-J.Sanders 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 3 – NE 0
  • Q2 10:41 TD MIA (10:41) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 11-J.Edelman INTERCEPTED by 21-E.Rowe at NE 35. 21-E.Rowe for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 9 – NE 0
  • Q2 05:54 FG NE (5:54) 2-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. MIA 10 – NE 3
  • Q2 02:10 TD NE (2:10) 52-E.Roberts reported in as eligible. 26-S.Michel left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 26-Michel 7th TD of season, new career high. Patriots 13th consecutive 400-point season, extends NFL record (LAC 8). MIA 10 – NE 9
  • Q3 07:48 TD MIA (7:48) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick scrambles up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 16 – NE 10
  • Q3 04:35 TD NE (4:35) 52-E.Roberts reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass short right to 52-E.Roberts for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 540th career TD pass, 2nd all-time (Brees 547). NE 12-Brady 77th different career TD target, extends NFL record (Testaverde 70). MIA 17 – NE 16
  • Q4 08:33 FG MIA (8:33) 7-J.Sanders 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 20 – NE 17
  • Q4 03:59 TD NE (3:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-35-W.Aikens was injured during the play. MIA 20 – NE 23
  • Q4 00:29 TD MIA (:29) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 26 – NE 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 43%

    (10:51) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack pass incomplete deep right to 44-D.Lacey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NE 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 31%

    (8:45) 7-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to MIA 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 89-T.Davis MUFFS catch, recovered by MIA-22-T.Hayes at MIA 11. 22-T.Hayes to MIA 11 for no gain (29-J.Bethel).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (1:42) 7-J.Sanders 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 29%

    (14:25) 7-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to MIA 4, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-29-J.Bethel. ball batted back before landing in end zone by 18-Slater

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:54) 2-M.Haack punts 44 yards to NE 24, Center-46-T.Pepper. 14-M.Sanu Sr. to NE 31 for 7 yards (35-W.Aikens).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (5:54) 2-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:31) 2-M.Haack punts 38 yards to NE 18, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-86-M.Hollins.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:05) 2-M.Haack punts 55 yards to NE 25, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu Sr..

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (13:16) 7-J.Bailey punts 57 yards to MIA 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 89-T.Davis pushed ob at MIA 17 for 7 yards (43-N.Ebner).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 18 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 48%

    (:11) 2-M.Haack punts 33 yards to NE 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu Sr..

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 8 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:01) 7-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to MIA 37, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 95%

    (8:33) 7-J.Sanders 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

    See the full breakdown →