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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 9

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 7-J.Sanders 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.35 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 9, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model