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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 3 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 2-M.Haack punts 44 yards to NE 24, Center-46-T.Pepper. 14-M.Sanu Sr. to NE 31 for 7 yards (35-W.Aikens).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.80 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 68, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 26, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model