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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Miami Dolphins
4th & 3 at the 45
Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 0
What Actually Happened
(10:51) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack pass incomplete deep right to 44-D.Lacey.
The Three Options
GO
+0.13 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.86 EP
- 50% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.66 EP
KICK
-1.07 EP
- 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
- 57% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT
-0.53 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
