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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 50

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 7-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to MIA 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 89-T.Davis MUFFS catch, recovered by MIA-22-T.Hayes at MIA 11. 22-T.Hayes to MIA 11 for no gain (29-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.25 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 50, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model