Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 80

Miami Dolphins 10 – New England Patriots 10

(1:05) 2-M.Haack punts 55 yards to NE 25, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu Sr..

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.96 EP
65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model