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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 14

Miami Dolphins 17 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(8:33) 7-J.Sanders 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.16 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 14, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 24, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model