Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LA defense: -0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- ARI defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
ARI
LA
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:17 FG LA (9:17) 4-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. ARI 0 – LA 3
- Q1 04:00 TD ARI (4:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 82-D.Arnold for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – LA 3
- Q2 10:59 TD LA (10:59) 34-M.Brown up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – LA 9
- Q2 03:55 TD LA (3:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 18-C.Kupp for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – LA 16
- Q2 00:07 FG ARI (:07) 5-Z.Gonzalez 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 10 – LA 17
- Q3 04:47 TD ARI (4:47) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-D.Byrd for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – LA 17
- Q4 13:37 TD LA (13:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 17 – LA 23
- Q4 07:58 TD LA (7:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 17-R.Woods for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 17 – LA 30
- Q4 03:59 TD ARI (3:59) (Shotgun) 41-K.Drake up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 23 – LA 31
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LA 4th & 10 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 81%
(9:17) 4-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
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Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(6:17) 4-A.Lee punts 44 yards to LA 14, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-N.Webster.
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Q1 LA 4th & 7 at the 83Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 42%
(4:45) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 33-N.Scott. 33-N.Scott left end to LA 23 for 6 yards (42-D.Gardeck, 49-K.Fitts).
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Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 44%
(1:43) 6-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to ARI 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.
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Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(:39) 4-A.Lee punts 54 yards to LA 36, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-N.Webster to 50 for 14 yards (42-D.Gardeck).
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Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 52%
(8:55) 4-A.Lee punts 53 yards to LA 7, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-N.Webster to LA 11 for 4 yards (42-D.Gardeck).
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Q2 LA 4th & 12 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(5:42) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to ARI 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.
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Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 81%
(1:05) 4-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%
(:07) 5-Z.Gonzalez 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
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Q3 LA 4th & 11 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 37%
(9:36) 6-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to ARI 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.
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Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 45 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 44%
(1:09) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.