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Arizona Cardinals

5-10-1 HC Kliff Kingsbury
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Los Angeles Rams

9-7 HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2019-12-29 · 16:25 ET Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

ARI
39.5%
LA
60.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LA defense: -0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • ARI offense: -0.017 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

ARI 20 13–27
–
LA 24 17–31
Projected margin: LA by 4 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 17

ARI

Darrell Daniels TE Out Biceps
Charles Clay TE Questionable Calf
Kyler Murray QB Questionable Hamstring

LA

Darrell Henderson RB Out Ankle
Jalen Ramsey CB Out Knee
Troy Hill CB Doubtful Thumb

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 24
–
LA 31

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:17 FG LA (9:17) 4-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. ARI 0 – LA 3
  • Q1 04:00 TD ARI (4:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 82-D.Arnold for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – LA 3
  • Q2 10:59 TD LA (10:59) 34-M.Brown up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – LA 9
  • Q2 03:55 TD LA (3:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 18-C.Kupp for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – LA 16
  • Q2 00:07 FG ARI (:07) 5-Z.Gonzalez 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 10 – LA 17
  • Q3 04:47 TD ARI (4:47) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-D.Byrd for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – LA 17
  • Q4 13:37 TD LA (13:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 17 – LA 23
  • Q4 07:58 TD LA (7:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 17-R.Woods for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 17 – LA 30
  • Q4 03:59 TD ARI (3:59) (Shotgun) 41-K.Drake up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 23 – LA 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 81%

    (9:17) 4-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:17) 4-A.Lee punts 44 yards to LA 14, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-N.Webster.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LA 4th & 7 at the 83
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:45) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 33-N.Scott. 33-N.Scott left end to LA 23 for 6 yards (42-D.Gardeck, 49-K.Fitts).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 44%

    (1:43) 6-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to ARI 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:39) 4-A.Lee punts 54 yards to LA 36, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-N.Webster to 50 for 14 yards (42-D.Gardeck).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (8:55) 4-A.Lee punts 53 yards to LA 7, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-N.Webster to LA 11 for 4 yards (42-D.Gardeck).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 12 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:42) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to ARI 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 81%

    (1:05) 4-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (:07) 5-Z.Gonzalez 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 11 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 37%

    (9:36) 6-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to ARI 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 44%

    (1:09) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →