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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 58

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 4-A.Lee punts 44 yards to LA 14, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-N.Webster.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.22 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 58, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model