Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 83

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 0

(4:45) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 33-N.Scott. 33-N.Scott left end to LA 23 for 6 yards (42-D.Gardeck, 49-K.Fitts).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

What Happened

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.18 EP
58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 83, worth -4.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.47 EP