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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 45

Los Angeles Rams 31 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.78 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP