Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 90

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Los Angeles Rams 3

(:39) 4-A.Lee punts 54 yards to LA 36, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-N.Webster to 50 for 14 yards (42-D.Gardeck).

The Three Options

GO -3.20 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.45 EP
62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 90, worth -5.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model