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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 60

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 4-A.Lee punts 53 yards to LA 7, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-N.Webster to LA 11 for 4 yards (42-D.Gardeck).

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.01 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 60, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 19, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP