PIT @ NYJ — 4th & Data

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HC Mike Tomlin

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HC Adam Gase

Sunday 2019-12-22 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 36.5

Win Probability

PIT

34.4%

NYJ

65.6%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

PIT offense: -0.175 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
PIT defense: -0.195 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
NYJ offense: -0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
NYJ on 3 more days rest than PIT
QB edge to PIT: Sam Darnold (NYJ) -0.049 vs Devlin Hodges (PIT) -0.014 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PIT 20

–

NYJ 24

Projected margin: NYJ by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

PIT

No players on the report.

NYJ

Tom Compton G Doubtful Calf

Demaryius Thomas WR Doubtful Hamstring

Jamal Adams S Questionable Ankle

Henry Anderson DE Questionable Shoulder

Robby Anderson WR Questionable Illness

Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Ankles

Arthur Maulet CB Questionable Calf

Steve McLendon DT Questionable Knee

Brian Poole CB Questionable Concussion

Bilal Powell RB Questionable Ankle

Quinnen Williams DT Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 10

–

NYJ 16

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:32 TD NYJ (10:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-Ro.Anderson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-T.Watt]. PIT 0 – NYJ 6
Q2 14:20 FG NYJ (14:20) 9-S.Ficken 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. PIT 0 – NYJ 10
Q2 01:22 FG PIT (1:22) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – NYJ 10
Q2 00:09 TD PIT (:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – NYJ 10
Q3 06:34 FG NYJ (6:34) 9-S.Ficken 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. PIT 10 – NYJ 13
Q4 03:15 FG NYJ (3:15) 9-S.Ficken 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. PIT 10 – NYJ 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 31

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 65% p(FG) 74%

(11:23) 26-L.Bell right guard to PIT 24 for 7 yards (56-A.Chickillo; 39-M.Fitzpatrick). Penalty on PIT-96-I.Buggs, Defensive Offside, declined. Penalty on PIT, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.
Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 57

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP

p(convert) 57%

(4:12) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to PIT 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-41-M.Farley.
Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(2:03) 4-J.Berry punts 59 yards to NYJ 21, Center-57-K.Canaday. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 41 for 20 yards (44-T.Matakevich; 37-J.Dangerfield).
Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 36

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP

p(convert) 54% p(FG) 63%

(14:20) 9-S.Ficken 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(9:28) 4-L.Edwards punts 63 yards to PIT 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.
Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(6:05) 4-J.Berry punts 31 yards to NYJ 40, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(3:53) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to PIT 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at PIT 43 for 30 yards (4-L.Edwards). PENALTY on PIT-37-J.Dangerfield, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 24.
Q2 PIT 4th & 11 at the 31

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 74%

(1:22) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.
Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(11:46) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to NYJ 19, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.
Q3 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 19

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 91%

(6:34) 9-S.Ficken 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(4:59) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 49 yards to NYJ 19, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.
Q3 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(3:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to PIT 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 42 for 17 yards (85-T.Wesco).
Q3 PIT 4th & 7 at the 40

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 53%

(:43) 4-J.Berry punts 30 yards to NYJ 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.
Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(13:36) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to PIT 27, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at PIT 39 for 12 yards (50-F.Luvu).
Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 24 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 52% p(FG) 86%

(3:15) 9-S.Ficken 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
Q4 PIT 4th & 14 at the 79 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(1:59) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to NYJ 34, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.
Q4 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 68 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(1:39) 4-L.Edwards punts 28 yards to PIT 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.
Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 44 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.62 EP

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 42%

(:44) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 49, and recovers at 50. 6-D.Hodges pass incomplete deep middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster.