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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 31

New York Jets 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 26-L.Bell right guard to PIT 24 for 7 yards (56-A.Chickillo; 39-M.Fitzpatrick). Penalty on PIT-96-I.Buggs, Defensive Offside, declined. Penalty on PIT, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.23 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model