Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 76

New York Jets 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

(13:36) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to PIT 27, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at PIT 39 for 12 yards (50-F.Luvu).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.43 EP
59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model