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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 68

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(4:59) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 49 yards to NYJ 19, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.76 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model