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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 77

New York Jets 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 4-L.Edwards punts 63 yards to PIT 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model