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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 44

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(:44) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 49, and recovers at 50. 6-D.Hodges pass incomplete deep middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.74 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.86 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.62 EP