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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Saturday 2019-12-21 · 20:15 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

LA
35.4%
SF
64.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): +0.144 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LA defense: -0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 21
–
SF 24
Projected margin: SF by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

LA

Troy Hill CB Out Thumb
Greg Zuerlein K Questionable right Quadricep

SF

Dee Ford DE Out Quadricep
Jaquiski Tartt S Out Ribs
Jullian Taylor DT Out Elbow
Mike Person G Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 31
–
SF 34

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:15 TD LA (11:15) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 12-B.Cooks for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-N.Bosa]. Caught at SF -8. 0-yac LA 6 – SF 0
  • Q1 08:39 FG SF (8:39) 9-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. LA 7 – SF 3
  • Q2 15:00 TD LA (15:00) 30-T.Gurley right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – SF 3
  • Q2 12:14 TD SF (12:14) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 14 – SF 9
  • Q2 06:50 TD LA (6:50) 30-T.Gurley right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 20 – SF 10
  • Q2 02:26 TD SF (2:26) 31-R.Mostert right tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 21 – SF 16
  • Q2 00:56 TD SF (:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 34-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner at LA 46. 54-F.Warner for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 21 – SF 23
  • Q3 05:12 TD LA (5:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 18-C.Kupp for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 8. 8-yac LA 27 – SF 24
  • Q4 06:14 TD SF (6:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at LA -2. 0-yac LA 28 – SF 30
  • Q4 02:36 FG LA (2:36) 4-G.Zuerlein 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 31 – SF 31
  • Q4 00:03 FG SF (:03) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. LA 31 – SF 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (8:39) 9-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:08) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to SF 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:43) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to LA 10, Center-86-K.Nelson. 14-N.Webster MUFFS catch, and recovers at LA 8. 14-N.Webster to LA 8 for no gain (33-T.Moore).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (4:16) 6-J.Hekker punts 32 yards to LA 47, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:12) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to SF 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

  • Q3 LA 4th & 19 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 64%

    (13:58) 4-G.Zuerlein 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 53%

    (10:25) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 32 yards to LA 6, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-32-D.Reed Jr.. PENALTY on LA-99-A.Donald, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at LA 6.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 9 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:33) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to SF 44, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 13 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:57) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to LA 17, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 14-N.Webster. PENALTY on SF-32-D.Reed Jr., Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LA 17.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:50) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to LA 18, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 14-N.Webster.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 11 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 21%

    (14:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to SF 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-25-D.Long.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 12 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:53) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to LA 42, Center-86-K.Nelson. 14-N.Webster to LA 43 for 1 yard (41-E.Moseley; 33-T.Moore).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:04) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to SF 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 64%

    (2:36) 4-G.Zuerlein 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.