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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 34

Los Angeles Rams 28 – San Francisco 49ers 31

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 4-G.Zuerlein 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.44 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model