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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 19 at the 34

Los Angeles Rams 21 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(13:58) 4-G.Zuerlein 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.00 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model