Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 70

Los Angeles Rams 21 – San Francisco 49ers 24

(:12) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to SF 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.25 EP
55% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 70, worth -2.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model