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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 38

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 32 yards to LA 6, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-32-D.Reed Jr.. PENALTY on LA-99-A.Donald, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at LA 6.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.76 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP