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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 54

Los Angeles Rams 28 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to SF 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.78 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model