Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 96

Los Angeles Rams 21 – San Francisco 49ers 24

(9:33) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to SF 44, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.65 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.10 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 96, worth -6.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model