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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2019-12-15 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

LA
32.2%
DAL
67.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.172 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LA defense: -0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL on 3 more days rest than LA

Predicted Final Score

LA 22
–
DAL 27
Projected margin: DAL by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

LA

Gerald Everett TE Out Knee
Rob Havenstein T Doubtful Knee

DAL

Leighton Vander Esch LB Out Neck
Ventell Bryant WR Questionable Knee
Sean Lee LB Questionable Pectoral

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 21
–
DAL 44

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:53 TD DAL (1:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 82-J.Witten for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – DAL 6
  • Q2 13:03 TD LA (13:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 30-T.Gurley for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – DAL 7
  • Q2 11:49 TD DAL (11:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 10-T.Austin for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – DAL 13
  • Q2 02:00 TD DAL (2:00) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – DAL 20
  • Q2 00:20 TD DAL (:20) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – DAL 27
  • Q3 11:14 FG DAL (11:14) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. LA 7 – DAL 31
  • Q4 15:00 FG DAL (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. LA 7 – DAL 34
  • Q4 06:44 FG DAL (6:44) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. LA 7 – DAL 37
  • Q4 03:22 TD LA (3:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-T.Gurley left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – DAL 37
  • Q4 03:09 TD DAL (3:09) 20-T.Pollard left tackle for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 15 – DAL 43
  • Q4 00:45 TD LA (:45) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-C.Kupp for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 21 – DAL 44

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 15 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 42%

    (12:57) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to DAL 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (11:02) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 47 yards to LA 22, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 14-N.Webster ran ob at LA 22 for no gain.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 14 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:16) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to DAL 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:06) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 67 yards to DAL 3, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-88-M.Thomas.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (3:47) 4-D.Prescott right guard to LA 5 for 2 yards (90-M.Brockers). Quarterback sneak.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 75%

    (11:14) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:55) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 65 yards to DAL 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 10-T.Austin to DAL 32 for 12 yards (41-K.Young).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:55) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to LA 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-83-V.Bryant.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:43) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short left to 88-M.Thomas to LA 39 for 5 yards (26-J.Jones). FUMBLES (26-J.Jones), RECOVERED by DAL-92-D.Armstrong at LA 37. 92-D.Armstrong to LA 37 for no gain (48-T.Howard). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short left to 88-M.Thomas to LA 39 for 5 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 36
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 67%

    (3:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 12-B.Cooks.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 87%

    (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:52) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 69 yards to DAL 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 10-T.Austin to DAL 19 for 8 yards (88-M.Thomas).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 87%

    (6:44) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.