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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 32

Dallas Cowboys 28 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(11:14) (Field Goal formation) 3-K.Forbath 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.34 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 42, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model