Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 63

Dallas Cowboys 31 – Los Angeles Rams 7

(7:55) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to LA 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-83-V.Bryant.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.29 EP
55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 63, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model