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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 46

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:57) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to DAL 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.78 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -3.29 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model