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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 36

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Dallas Cowboys 31

What Actually Happened

(3:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 12-B.Cooks.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.30 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -2.00 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP