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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2019-12-15 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

HOU
42.0%
TEN
58.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to HOU: Ryan Tannehill (TEN) -0.004 vs Deshaun Watson (HOU) +0.163 EPA/dropback
  • TEN offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • HOU offense: +0.017 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 22
–
TEN 25
Projected margin: TEN by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

HOU

Will Fuller WR Questionable Hamstring
Taiwan Jones RB Questionable Hamstring
Brennan Scarlett LB Questionable Achilles

TEN

Daren Bates LB Out Shoulder
Adam Humphries WR Out Ankle
Adoree' Jackson CB Out Foot
Derrick Henry RB Questionable Hamstring
Kenny Vaccaro S Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 24
–
TEN 21

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:04 TD HOU (10:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-K.Stills for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-26-L.Ryan, Defensive Holding, declined. HOU 6 – TEN 0
  • Q2 03:20 TD HOU (3:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 12-K.Stills for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – TEN 0
  • Q3 05:40 TD TEN (5:40) 17-R.Tannehill left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 14 – TEN 6
  • Q4 13:46 TD TEN (13:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 11-A.Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 14 – TEN 13
  • Q4 10:41 TD HOU (10:41) (Shotgun) 23-C.Hyde left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 20 – TEN 14
  • Q4 03:31 FG HOU (3:31) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. Penalty on TEN-46-J.Kalu, Defensive Offside, declined. HOU 24 – TEN 14
  • Q4 02:10 TD TEN (2:10) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 33-D.Lewis for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 24 – TEN 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 82%

    (7:08) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-A.Blackson), Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern, RECOVERED by HOU-33-A.Moore at HOU 23. 33-A.Moore to HOU 23 for no gain (78-J.Conklin).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:12) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:17) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to HOU 28, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-31-K.Byard.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 14 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:57) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 60 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-K.Raymond to TEN 24 for 8 yards (57-B.Scarlett; 58-P.Kalambayi).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:56) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to HOU 28, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 10 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 62%

    (1:14) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern pass incomplete deep right to 29-D.Cruikshank (32-L.Johnson).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 34%

    (:13) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 38 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-41-Z.Cunningham.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (5:40) 17-R.Tannehill left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:59) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to HOU 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-29-D.Cruikshank.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 11 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (3:31) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. Penalty on TEN-46-J.Kalu, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 12 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 44%

    (:28) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 43 yards to TEN 1, Center-46-J.Weeks. 36-L.Sims to TEN 12 for 11 yards (52-B.Mingo, 33-A.Moore).