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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 80

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:17) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to HOU 28, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-31-K.Byard.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.36 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 37, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model