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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 48

Houston Texans 14 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(:13) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 38 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-41-Z.Cunningham.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +1.90 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.91 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP