Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 76

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

(1:57) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 60 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-K.Raymond to TEN 24 for 8 yards (57-B.Scarlett; 58-P.Kalambayi).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.74 EP
69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model