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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 27

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:08) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-A.Blackson), Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern, RECOVERED by HOU-33-A.Moore at HOU 23. 33-A.Moore to HOU 23 for no gain (78-J.Conklin).

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.81 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 27, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model