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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 11

Houston Texans 21 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(3:31) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. Penalty on TEN-46-J.Kalu, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.54 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model