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Indianapolis Colts

6-7 HC Frank Reich
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

6-7 HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2019-12-08 · 13:00 ET Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

IND
40.8%
TB
59.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • TB defense: -0.016 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.011 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.016 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

IND 21 14–28
–
TB 23 16–30
Projected margin: TB by 2 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 14

IND

T.Y. Hilton WR Out Calf
Kenny Moore CB Out Ankle
Adam Vinatieri K Out left Knee
Rock Ya-Sin CB Questionable Ankle
Malik Hooker S Questionable Foot

TB

Alex Cappa G Out Elbow
Scott Miller WR Out Hamstring
Anthony Nelson LB Out Hamstring
T.J. Logan RB Out Thumb
Jamel Dean CB Questionable Shoulder
M.J. Stewart CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 35
–
TB 38

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 29 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:54 TD IND (12:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 83-M.Johnson for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-26-S.Bunting, Illegal Contact, declined. IND 6 – TB 0
  • Q1 06:58 FG IND (6:58) 5-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – TB 0
  • Q1 01:47 TD TB (1:47) 3-J.Winston right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 10 – TB 6
  • Q1 01:15 TD TB (1:15) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB-13-M.Evans was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. IND 10 – TB 13
  • Q2 07:47 TD IND (7:47) 25-M.Mack up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 16 – TB 14
  • Q2 02:47 TD IND (2:47) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 19-B.Perriman INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Leonard [37-K.Willis] at IND 20. 53-D.Leonard for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 23 – TB 14
  • Q2 00:41 TD TB (:41) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 84-C.Brate for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 24 – TB 20
  • Q2 00:03 FG IND (:03) 5-C.McLaughlin 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 27 – TB 21
  • Q3 06:05 TD IND (6:05) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Z.Pascal for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 33 – TB 21
  • Q3 03:24 TD TB (3:24) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 17-J.Watson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 35 – TB 27
  • Q4 13:05 FG TB (13:05) 9-M.Gay 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. IND 35 – TB 31
  • Q4 03:56 TD TB (3:56) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 19-B.Perriman for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 35 – TB 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 71%

    (6:58) 5-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:24) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to TB 32, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 17-J.Watson to TB 39 for 7 yards (58-B.Okereke).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:56) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to TB 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 17-J.Watson pushed ob at TB 21 for -4 yards (20-J.Wilkins).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:47) 8-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to IND 34, Center-97-Z.Triner. 21-N.Hines to TB 47 for 19 yards (17-J.Watson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%

    (8:15) (Shotgun) 73-J.Haeg reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett left end to TB 2 for 9 yards (31-J.Whitehead; 34-M.Edwards).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (:13) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles left tackle to TB 1 for 2 yards (58-S.Barrett).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 11 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 27%

    (12:09) 8-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to TB 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 17-J.Watson. PENALTY on IND-50-A.Walker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 13.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:47) 8-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to IND 9, Center-97-Z.Triner. 21-N.Hines to IND 24 for 15 yards (79-P.O'Connor).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (1:51) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to TB 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 17-J.Watson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 82%

    (13:05) 9-M.Gay 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 14 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 77%

    (8:18) 5-C.McLaughlin 47 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 16 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 93%

    (4:38) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 44-D.Ogunbowale to IND 12 for 4 yards (26-C.Geathers).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 25%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 7-J.Brissett. 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left. Penalty on IND-7-J.Brissett, Illegal Forward Pass, declined.

    See the full breakdown →