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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 26

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 – Indianapolis Colts 35

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 9-M.Gay 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.88 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model