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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:24) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to TB 32, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 17-J.Watson to TB 39 for 7 yards (58-B.Okereke).

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model