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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 11

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:15) (Shotgun) 73-J.Haeg reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett left end to TB 2 for 9 yards (31-J.Whitehead; 34-M.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO +3.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.15 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model