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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 32

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 5-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.24 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model