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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 49

Indianapolis Colts 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 8-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to TB 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 17-J.Watson. PENALTY on IND-50-A.Walker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 13.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.41 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.92 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model