Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 79

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Indianapolis Colts 10

(12:47) 8-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to IND 34, Center-97-Z.Triner. 21-N.Hines to TB 47 for 19 yards (17-J.Watson).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.65 EP
65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 79, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model