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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2019-12-08 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 8.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

DEN
25.4%
HOU
74.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.150 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to HOU: Deshaun Watson (HOU) +0.193 vs Drew Lock (DEN) -0.089 EPA/dropback
  • HOU offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DEN defense: -0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 19
–
HOU 27
Projected margin: HOU by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

DEN

Ronald Leary G Out Concussion
Ja'Wuan James T Questionable Knee
Von Miller LB Questionable Knee
Malik Reed LB Questionable Ankle

HOU

Taiwan Jones RB Out Hamstring
Gareon Conley CB Questionable Hip
Will Fuller WR Questionable Hamstring
Bradley Roby CB Questionable Hamstring
Brennan Scarlett LB Questionable Shoulder
Carlos Watkins DE Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 38
–
HOU 24

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:31 TD DEN (7:31) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle to 87-N.Fant for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – HOU 0
  • Q1 03:52 TD DEN (3:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 16-K.Coutee to DEN 29 for 8 yards (45-A.Johnson). FUMBLES (45-A.Johnson), RECOVERED by DEN-97-J.Attaochu at DEN 29. 97-J.Attaochu to DEN 30 for 1 yard. Handoff to 22-K.Jackson for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – HOU 0
  • Q2 11:31 TD DEN (11:31) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 82-J.Heuerman for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 20 – HOU 0
  • Q2 08:53 FG HOU (8:53) 7-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. DEN 21 – HOU 3
  • Q2 03:07 FG DEN (3:07) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. DEN 24 – HOU 3
  • Q2 00:41 TD DEN (:41) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 28-R.Freeman for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 30 – HOU 3
  • Q3 09:18 TD DEN (9:18) (Shotgun) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 37 – HOU 3
  • Q3 07:46 TD HOU (7:46) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 38 – HOU 9
  • Q4 13:45 TD HOU (13:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 38 – HOU 16
  • Q4 00:32 TD HOU (:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 38 – HOU 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 55%

    (10:32) 9-B.Anger punts 33 yards to DEN 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer. Punt Hangtime: 4.34s

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 14 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:40) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to DEN 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 20 for 2 yards (41-Z.Cunningham, 38-G.Howell). Punt Hangtime: 4.28s

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 15 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 67%

    (8:53) 7-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 93%

    (3:07) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 16-K.Coutee (96-S.Harris).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 18 at the 58
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 26%

    (8:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins to DEN 39 for 19 yards (25-C.Harris).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 75%

    (7:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle intended for 88-J.Akins INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Jackson (31-J.Simmons) at DEN 21. 22-K.Jackson to DEN 25 for 4 yards (12-K.Stills).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:04) 6-C.Wadman punts 47 yards to HOU 13, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 14-D.Carter to HOU 21 for 8 yards (84-T.Fumagalli). Punt Hangtime: 4.2s

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 13 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%

    (1:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to DEN 3 for 10 yards (22-K.Jackson; 25-C.Harris).