4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 18

Denver Broncos 21 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.87 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 18, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model