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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 66

Houston Texans 3 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 16-K.Coutee (96-S.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model